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Worlds 2015: Quarterfinals Fantasy Advice

Ballack

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Worlds 2015: Quarterfinals Fantasy Advice

Ready for the knockout rounds? The group stages were filled with plenty of exciting games, favorites and underdogs prevailing, teams from North America letting us all down, and some good fantasy picks and some bad. As in everything in life its impossible to be 100% correct on my picks everytime. I use my analysis, price points, and match ups to determine who to pick and although it doesn't always work out, the process is still correct. If we could all predict what would happen we'd all be rich. I've been getting a lot of good feedback from people and I appreciate it all. Thank you for following and reading these blogs as I enjoy putting the information out there for you to use.

Here are the odds for the quarterfinals from http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/odds/match/e-sports/league-of-legends/league-of-legends-world-championship

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QFOdds2_zpsrjvd0i81.jpg
 

Origen, SKT, EDG, and KTR are the favorites to make the Semi-Finals. That said, SKT are the only overwhelming favorite while it is certainly reasonable to think that the other three match ups can go anyway. The best probable route to go is to stack up on SKT carries (marin, faker/easyhoon, Bang) and look for values in the other roles.

Here are my favorite players for the Quarterfinals:

Quarterfinal%20Picks_zps7stnqtw1.jpg

SKT is the best bet. Fit Faker, Marin, and Bang in wherever you can. My favorite value players come from FW in the form of Karsa and SwordArt, who has been underpriced all tournament. I have a lack of faith in the midlaners, not because of their skill but because of match ups. There are a ton of really good matchups in the midlane Nagne vs. KurO, Pawn vs. Febiven, xPeke vs. Maple. I think you either pay up for Faker or save and go with Maple, who has been great quietly great this tournament with the most kills and second most assists for any mid laner. I'm staying away from FNC and EDG for the most part. It's interesting because their players are relatively cheap, but I think this will be a really close match up that is hard to predict one way or the other. It could turn into a very objective focused series (as FNATIC does like to do this at times) which would limit fantasy output.

Vulcun:

Top: Marin (SKT) ($1301)
Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($1264)
Mid: Faker/Easyhoon (SKT) ($1625)
ADC: Bang (SKT) ($1514)
Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($962)
Flex One: GorillA (KOO) ($961)
Flex Two: ssumday (KTR) ($1371)
Flex Three: Score (KTR) ($1053)

You use your three SKT spots allowed on the three carries, while paying up they should be worth every penny. You also get to fit two top lane carries into your lineup with Marin and ssumday. You save by using two supports to pay up for value elsewhere, Karsa has the second most kills and third most assists among junglers and score provides a cheap jungle option even though he leads Worlds in assists from the jungle role.

Alphadraft:

Top: Marin (SKT) ($8900)
Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($6500)
Mid: Faker/Easyhoon (SKT) ($8800)
ADC: Bang (SKT) ($9100)
Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($6400)
Flex: Hojin (KOO) ($7100)
Team: Flash Wolves ($3000)

Again you use the three SKT carries. The rest of the lineup is quite cheap among FW players. I talked about SwordArt and Karsa above, but Hojin provides good value as his agressive style has him first in KDA among junglers at 8.4. Cheap team as always in FW, who could easily win their Best of Five against Origen.

Draftkings:

Top: Marin (SKT) ($7700)
Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($5100)
Mid: Maple (FW) ($6300)
ADC: Bang (SKT) ($8700)
Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($4900)
Flex One: Score (KTR) ($6400)
Flex Two: ssumday (KTR) ($6800)
Team: FNATIC ($3900)

This time you only get two SKT carries. Let's talk about that for a second. Draftkings does not combine Faker and Easyhoon into one pick, they're separated. Because of this, it's extremely risky to pick one or the other unless you are 100% sure that they are playing. If SKT vs ahq was the first match up of the week it'd be easier to get a handle on who was playing for SKT, but your lineup will lock after day one and if you stick Faker in while easyhoon is playing (or vice versa) you'll be paying the highest mid lane salary for no points. I'm going with Maple here instead and saving money. The savings go straight into ssumday to replace Faker's carry spot. With the leftover money I'm using FNATIC who are in a close matchup, but usually play objective focus in big games and that's where your team points come from.

 

Good luck and enjoy the Quarterfinals!




6 Comments


Hey, thanks for sharing your insight with us! Agreed, seems best to stack up on SKT players, especially since they are expected to beat AHQ (barring a SHOCKING upset). I mainly play on Draft Kings and while I do like your lineup and the thought process behind it (Maple does seem like a solid choice and yes, it's risky to choose Faker or Easyhoon given the way their rules are), did you take into account the bonus points DK assigns to players from winning teams/teams when ending a Bo5 series early? 20+/player and 15+/team for every Game Not Played (GNP) where GNP = Max games in series (5 in our case) - Games played in series (all from https://www.draftkings.com/help/lol). It seems to heavily reward you for picking players and teams that are expected to win, and I wonder if that changes some of your choices in your DK lineup since strictly by the odds, FW and FNC are not expected to win (though personally, as you said, I feel it could go either way) and they wouldn't get the point bonus if the series ended early and they lost.

Apart from the SKT/AHQ Bo5, I wouldn't be surprised if the rest DO go to game 5, which makes all of this moot. But still, not sure if I should heavily bias my picks to primarily players/teams who are expected to win (ex. tweaking the roster to have SKT as my team choice rather than FNC, which is a toss-up imo with EDG, cause while FNC could still get a lot of objectives/points even in a loss, they wouldn't qualify for the GNP bonus).

A penny for your thoughts.

Yeferson Morales likes this

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Hey James, 

Great shout honestly, as you bring up a great point. While I respect the bonus point rule, my philosophy has been to never pay up for a team when it inhibits my ability to get the players I want. I think we both agree that most of the series should be pretty close. My thing is if I wanted to pay up for SKT it takes away from my players. Keep in mind that I primarily write geared towards 50/50s, so in that setting I would never pay up for SKT. I could see SKT being more valuable in a tournament if you can pair paying up for a team with some low priced players that exceed their salary in terms of point output with low ownership % to help differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field.

I hope that makes sense and thanks for bringing up a good point!

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Thanks for the quick response and I hear what you are saying. In DK, trying to squeeze in SKT as my team choice or heavily stack more SKT players (or even KT players though we know KOO could pull off a win) forces me to choose pretty unfavorably for the remaining positions (like AHQ players).

Another Q -> Do you try to spend your entire salary when drafting a team? Glancing at different message boards ppl say that you shouldn't take salary into consideration nor feel uncomfortable with having money left over as long as you have the team you want, but I always feel uncomfortable having $500 or $1000+ left over. Maybe it's just something I should get over, =).

Again, thanks for the analysis and best of luck this weekend!

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@James Kang i make my lineups based on players I like and if I have money left over it's not a big deal. Usually I only end up with 100 or 200 left over anyway

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@James Kang see what I mean about teams? It's hard to predict... I could've never guessed FNATIC would 3-0 EDG today, but they saved a bunch of money from going with SKT and they scored 21 points more. That's why I usually don't pay up for a team if I can help it! 

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You were totally right! Glad I listened to you and chose FNC and a lot of FNC players. Thanks again! =) (I also thought EDG would put up more of a fight).

Hoping the KT vs. KOO game goes 5 and is a bloodbath, lols.

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