Worlds 2015: Semi-Final Advice
Here are the Semi-Final Odds:
FNATIC and SKT are the favorites to head to the World Finals. I would recommend fading ORG as SKT have looked near unstoppable. KOO provides some interesting salary relief plays.
Here's a list of all the players left in the tournament:
Top: Marin (SKT) ($1261) Jungle: Hojin (KOO) ($1175) Mid: Faker (SKT) ($1420) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($1514) Sup: GOrilla (KOO) ($994) Flex One: Huni (FNC) ($1252) Flex Two: YellowStar (FNC) ($1021) Flex Three: Febiven (FNC) ($1358)
The first thing to note is that Vulcun is combining the Semi-Final and Final rounds into their contests this week. With that in mind you need to select mostly players who are going to make it to the finals so you get two weeks worth of points. For me, it was SKT and FNC so I took the limit of three per team from each. The other two spots I gave to KOO Tigers as I think they have a better chance to make the finals than Origen.
Top: Marin (SKT) ($8600) Jungle: Hojin (KOO) ($7100) Mid: Febiven (FNC) ($7800) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($8800) Sup: Gorilla (KOO) ($6900) Flex; Yellowstar (FNC) ($7100) Team: FNATIC ($3700)
Top: Marin (SKT) ($7500) Jungle: Hojin (KOO) ($5600) Mid: Febiven (FNC) ($7400) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($8700) Sup: Mithy (ORG) ($4100) Flex; Huni (FNC) ($6700) Flex; Gorilla (KOO) ($5400) Team: FNATIC ($4500)
Worlds 2015: Quarterfinals Fantasy Advice
Ready for the knockout rounds? The group stages were filled with plenty of exciting games, favorites and underdogs prevailing, teams from North America letting us all down, and some good fantasy picks and some bad. As in everything in life its impossible to be 100% correct on my picks everytime. I use my analysis, price points, and match ups to determine who to pick and although it doesn't always work out, the process is still correct. If we could all predict what would happen we'd all be rich. I've been getting a lot of good feedback from people and I appreciate it all. Thank you for following and reading these blogs as I enjoy putting the information out there for you to use.
Here are the odds for the quarterfinals from http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/odds/match/e-sports/league-of-legends/league-of-legends-world-championship
Origen, SKT, EDG, and KTR are the favorites to make the Semi-Finals. That said, SKT are the only overwhelming favorite while it is certainly reasonable to think that the other three match ups can go anyway. The best probable route to go is to stack up on SKT carries (marin, faker/easyhoon, Bang) and look for values in the other roles.
Here are my favorite players for the Quarterfinals:
SKT is the best bet. Fit Faker, Marin, and Bang in wherever you can. My favorite value players come from FW in the form of Karsa and SwordArt, who has been underpriced all tournament. I have a lack of faith in the midlaners, not because of their skill but because of match ups. There are a ton of really good matchups in the midlane Nagne vs. KurO, Pawn vs. Febiven, xPeke vs. Maple. I think you either pay up for Faker or save and go with Maple, who has been great quietly great this tournament with the most kills and second most assists for any mid laner. I'm staying away from FNC and EDG for the most part. It's interesting because their players are relatively cheap, but I think this will be a really close match up that is hard to predict one way or the other. It could turn into a very objective focused series (as FNATIC does like to do this at times) which would limit fantasy output.
Top: Marin (SKT) ($1301) Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($1264) Mid: Faker/Easyhoon (SKT) ($1625) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($1514) Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($962) Flex One: GorillA (KOO) ($961) Flex Two: ssumday (KTR) ($1371) Flex Three: Score (KTR) ($1053)
You use your three SKT spots allowed on the three carries, while paying up they should be worth every penny. You also get to fit two top lane carries into your lineup with Marin and ssumday. You save by using two supports to pay up for value elsewhere, Karsa has the second most kills and third most assists among junglers and score provides a cheap jungle option even though he leads Worlds in assists from the jungle role.
Top: Marin (SKT) ($8900) Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($6500) Mid: Faker/Easyhoon (SKT) ($8800) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($9100) Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($6400) Flex: Hojin (KOO) ($7100) Team: Flash Wolves ($3000)
Again you use the three SKT carries. The rest of the lineup is quite cheap among FW players. I talked about SwordArt and Karsa above, but Hojin provides good value as his agressive style has him first in KDA among junglers at 8.4. Cheap team as always in FW, who could easily win their Best of Five against Origen.
Top: Marin (SKT) ($7700) Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($5100) Mid: Maple (FW) ($6300) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($8700) Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($4900) Flex One: Score (KTR) ($6400) Flex Two: ssumday (KTR) ($6800) Team: FNATIC ($3900)
This time you only get two SKT carries. Let's talk about that for a second. Draftkings does not combine Faker and Easyhoon into one pick, they're separated. Because of this, it's extremely risky to pick one or the other unless you are 100% sure that they are playing. If SKT vs ahq was the first match up of the week it'd be easier to get a handle on who was playing for SKT, but your lineup will lock after day one and if you stick Faker in while easyhoon is playing (or vice versa) you'll be paying the highest mid lane salary for no points. I'm going with Maple here instead and saving money. The savings go straight into ssumday to replace Faker's carry spot. With the leftover money I'm using FNATIC who are in a close matchup, but usually play objective focus in big games and that's where your team points come from.
Good luck and enjoy the Quarterfinals!
Worlds 2015: Day Six Fantasy Advice
Here are Day Six's odds from: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/odds/match/e-sports/league-of-legends/league-of-legends-championship-series
EDG and SKT are the dominate teams that will advance. Try to stack your lineups with as many SKT/EDG players as possible.
Here are the players, with salaries for Day 6:
Top: Marin (SKT) ($1284) Jungle: Clearlove (EDG) ($1221) Mid: Pawn (EDG) ($1477) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($1531) - Shotcaller Sup: Meiko (EDG) ($932) Flex One: Hjarnan (H2k) ($1325) Flex Two: Kasing (H2k) ($1003) Flex Three: Wolf (SKT) ($1176)
3 from SKT, 3 from EDG as thats the max. Fading all BKT members and pairing the H2k bot lane as I think they won't feed and Hjarnan will carry against BKT.
Top: AmazingJ (EDG) ($8000) Jungle: Clearlove (EDG) ($8500) Mid: Ryu (H2k) ($6800) ADC: Bang (SKT) ($9100) Sup: Moss (BKT) ($5600) Flex: Deft (EDG) ($8600) Team: H2k ($3400)
I'm punting support to pay up for other roles. It may be strange to go with Ryu over faker or pawn, but I think Ryu will be decent in the EDG/SKT games and will have a big game against BKT to make up for it. I'm also not paying up for a team as I've found it's not really worth it if you have to pay up at the expense of your players.
DraftKings Game One and Two:
Top: Marin (SKT) ($6800) Jungle: Clearlove (EDG) ($5300) Mid: Faker (SKT) ($7400) ADC: Hjarnan (H2k) ($9300) Sup: Meiko (EDG) ($4400) Flex One: Deft (EDG) ($6900) Flex Two: Wolf (SKT) ($5800) Team: EDG ($3800)
DraftKings Game Three and Four:
Top: Marin (SKT) ($8800) Jungle: Clearlove (EDG) ($7500) Mid: Ryu (H2k) ($5500) ADC: Deft (EDG) ($9500) Sup: Meiko (EDG) ($6800) Flex One: Hjarnan (H2k) ($5600) Flex Two: kasing (H2k) ($3500) Team: H2k ($2700)
DraftKings Game Five and Six:
Top: Marin (SKT) ($9000) Jungle: Clearlove (EDG) ($6800) Mid: Ryu (H2k) ($5500) ADC: Deft (EDG) ($8300) Sup: Kasing (H2k) ($4000) Flex One: Bengi (SKT) ($7600) Flex Two: Hjarnan (H2k) ($5800) Team: H2k ($2900)
*Note: If SKT beats EDG make sure that Easyhoon is not subbed in for faker for the following games. If he is make sure you adjust your Draftkings lineups accordingly.
Worlds 2015: Day Five Fantasy Advice
Here are Day Five's Odds from http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/odds/match/e-sports/league-of-legends/league-of-legends-championship-series :
KOO are the favorite to win their group followed by CLG in second, FW in third, and paiN Gaming in fourth. Upsets can and may happen so take careful consideration into that when formatting your lineups.
Here are today's players and their prices across the three sites I play on:
DraftKings is doing a weird thing and instead of using the enitre day for their games they've split them into groups of two. I wish they had contests for the whole day but alas they do not. Note that prices change from game to game for the players. Vulcun and Alphadraft are using the entire day in their contests. I think on DraftKings it may be better to play tournaments so you can mix favorites with high upside cheap players.
Top: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($1232) Jungle: Hojin (KOO) ($1281) Mid: Kuro (KOO) ($1532) ADC: Pray (KOO) ($1528) Support: Aphromoo (CLG) ($1008) Flex One: Doublelift (CLG) ($1482) Flex Two: SwordArt (FW) ($984) Flex Three: Dioud (paiN) ($897)
By using three cheap supports (two of which I think are fine to use) I can pay up for Kuro, Pray, Hojin, and Doublelift. I don't expect that CLG will feed again so Doublelift is a good bet even if they don't win their group. I'm expecting KOO to win the group so paying up for their carries is a good idea.
Top: Smeb (KOO) ($7600) Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($7300) Mid: KurO (KOO) ($8300) ADC: Pray (KOO) ($8000) Support: Aphromoo (CLG) ($7500) Flex: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($7400) Team: KOO ($3800)
On Alphadraft you can use four players from one team instead of three on Alphadraft. I'm paying up for Smeb, KurO, Pray and using KOO as my team for my four KOO picks. I'm also using Aphro and Zion as I expect CLG to finish second in their group, while using Karsa over Xmithie as I just think he's a better player. They are the same price though so if you feel Xmithie > Karsa I can't fault you.
DraftKings (Games 1-2):
Top: Smeb (KOO) ($6800) Jungle: Hojin (KOO) ($6300) Mid: KurO (KOO) ($8700) ADC: Pray (KOO) ($9000) Support: Aphromoo (CLG) ($4200) Flex One: Dioud (paiN) ($3900) Flex Two: Kami (paiN) ($6300) Team: KOO ($4600)
By using three cheap players you can pay up for the KOO Tigers. Kami is the best player on paiN and performed well against FW last time. Just hope the three cheap players don't feed and that KOO win and you should be in good shape.
DraftKings (Games 3-4):
Top: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($6700) Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($5100) Mid: KurO (KOO) ($9000) ADC: Doublelift (CLG) ($8400) Support: Aphromoo (CLG) ($5400) Flex One: Smeb (KOO) ($7300) Flex Two: SwordArt (FW) ($3800) Team: CLG ($4300)
I think CLG beats FW, and Doublelift is the best play at ADC anyway as Pray is priced extremely high. Using a mix of CLG and FW players in what may be a close game allows you to pay up for Smeb and KurO in the best match up in this round of games.
DraftKings (Games 5-6):
Top: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($7100) Jungle: Hojin (KOO) ($6700) Mid: KurO (KOO) ($8500) ADC: Pray (KOO) ($9100) Support: SwordArt (FW) ($3800) Flex One: Aphromoo (CLG) ($5500) Flex Two: SirT (paiN) ($4100) Team: CLG ($5200)
Again using cheap players mixed with favored players to construct this lineup. Paying up for KOO's carries, Doublelift is out priced for me in this round.
Good Luck on Day Five!
Worlds 2015: Day Four Fantasy Advice
Here are the odds for Day Four via esports-betting.pro/lol :
LGD are the biggest favorites of the day. The best underdog looks like CLG. I'm fading Pain Gaming vs. Flash Wolves even though the line is somewhat close.
Here are my picks for Day Four:
CLG are the best dog of the day with a real chance to beat KOO Tigers. That said pairing Doublelift and Aphroo has paid off nicely so far, and they're both really good cheap options on Day Four. Double is CLG's carry, even in a loss he's good for the bulk of his teams kills and is almost a must play at such a cheap price at DraftKings. I think LGD beats TSM and KTR will beat ORG. FW provide the best stacking options against pnG.
Top: Steak (FW) ($1288) Jungle: Score (KTR) ($1221) Mid: Nage (KTR) ($1351) ADC: NL (FW) ($1582) Sup: Aphromoo (CLG) ($960) Flex One: imp (LGD) ($1522) Flex Two: Kitties (iG) ($958) Flex Three: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($1115)
Again price comes into factor on Vulcun the most. I paid up for NL in a favorable matchup and grabbed steak to complete my FW picks. I also am paying up for imp as he is the main carry threat for LGD in a good match up. Zion and Aphro provide salary relief in a matchup they have a good chance to win as underdogs.
Top: Acorn (LGD) ($7300) Jungle: Score (KTR) ($6500) Mid: Maple (FW) ($8500) ADC: NL (FW) ($9100) Sup: Piccaboo (KTR) ($6000) Flex: imp (LGD) ($9100) Team: KTR ($3500)
Using cheap support (Piccaboo) jungler (Score) and team in KTR in a game I expect them to win to pay up for Maple, NL, and imp. Acorn is a good bet to score highly as well as Dyrus tends to get camped and give up kills.
Top: Steak (FW) ($6000) Jungle: Score (KTR) ($5200) Mid: Maple (FW) ($7400) ADC: NL (FW) ($8800) Sup: Aphromoo (CLG) ($3900) Flex One: Doublelift (CLG) ($6100) Flex Two: imp (iG) ($8600) Team: iG ($4000)
I originally had KTR as my team and while there's less risk involved perhaps, the $100 savings allowed me to squeeze Doublelift into my lineup to stack with Aphro. I love this lineup, it has the high carries of Double and imp, cheap support, and the FW stack along with Score who is also cheap.
Good luck on Day 4!
Worlds 2015: Day Three Fantasy Advice
Here's a look at the odds for Day 3:
H2k are the heaviest favorites, but how much do you trust them? BKT have looked awful, true, but they've also faced arguably the two best teams in SKT and EDG. FNATIC are a heavy favorite but their games tend to be very objective focused, which is not the most fantasy friendly outcome. I still don't fully trust C9. The best underdogs are EDG and KTR.
Here are my favorite players for Day Three:
I'm staying away from EDG and SKT as I find its tough to predict what will happen. That said their players are quite cheap and if you picked the winning side you'd be in good shape. I think Deft, Faker, and Pawn present the highest upside, but you could make an argument for all of the players. They're some of the best in the World. H2k on paper look like the best match up, but stay away from Loulex. I think Origen will beat TSM, but I'd stay away from xPeke even after his great game on Day Two.
Top: ssumday (KTR) ($1145) Jungle: Amazing (ORG) ($1118) Mid: Ryu (H2k) ($1572) ADC: Hjarnan (H2k) ($1520) Support: kasing (H2k) ($1052) Flex One: Niels (ORG) ($1398) Flex Two: sOAZ (ORG) ($1223) Flex Three: LemonNation (C9) ($922)
I'm going with the H2k stack, they just seem like the best option of the day after watching BKT. I also think Origen beats TSM, with sOAZ a good pick as Dyrus usually gets camped, and a cheap Amazing and carry Niels. I am staying away from EDG vs. SKT as it's a bit unpredicatable but like I said above if you pick the right side you're in good shape.
Top: ssumday (KTR) ($6800) Jungle: Score (KTR) ($6500) Mid: Ryu (H2k) ($8300) ADC: Hjarnan (H2k) ($9400) Sup: kasing (H2k) ($7900) Flex: sOAZ (ORG) ($7100) Team: H2k ($4000)
ssumday and score looked pretty great yesterday in their win over TSM. While LGD would seem to be a tougher match up I still like KTR going into it. Using the same three H2k players and sOAZ as well.
Top: sOAZ (ORG) ($5900) Jungle: Score (KTR) ($5000) Mid: Ryu (H2k) ($7300) ADC: Hjarnan (H2k) ($8200) Sup: kaSing (H2k) ($5500) Flex One: Niels (ORG) ($7400) Flex Two: ssumday (KTR) ($5100) Team: H2k ($4600)
Pretty similar to the above lineups. Just hoping that H2k does not get upset and that having no EDG/SKT players doesn't bite me in the back side today.
Good luck on Day 3!
Worlds 2015: Day Two Fantasy Advice
Here are Day Two's odds according to http://www.esports-betting.pro/lol/
SKT are the heaviest favorites of the day, while the best underdogs look like Flash Wolves. I would recommend fading H2k, Bangkok Titans, and Origen. I personally don't have a good feeling about TSM against KT Rolster either. After EDG's destruction of BKT, I think its safe to think a similar result will take place when SKT plays BKT on Day Two.
Here are my favorite plays for Day Two:
Again it's all about price. Doublelift provides good value on Vulcun but is the highest priced ADC on AlphaDraft. Just look for the values and try to take advantage of underpriced players in good match ups.
Top: ssumday (KTR) ($1231) Jungle: hojin (KOO) ($1174) Mid: GodV (LGD) ($1511) ADC: Doublelift (CLG) ($1437) Support: Aphromoo (CLG) ($992) Flex One: Xmithie (CLG) ($1023) Flex Two: Pawn (EDG) ($1521) Flex Three: Piccaboo (KTR) ($1074)
I'm gonna be honest I don't love the look of this lineup. It pains me to have 0, non, notta single SKT player involved. But it's hard on Vulcun. It's really hard to fit an SKT player in today. Every single member is either the most expensive or the second most in their role and it's really hard to fit them in while keeping a balanced roster elsewhere. The best value can be found in the jungle and I'm using Xmithie and Hojin who are two of the cheapest junglers. I'm also pairing Doublelift and Aphromoo against paiN while paying up for Pawn and GodV, who I think will have a big game and exploit xPeke.
Top: Marin (SKT) ($8200) Jungle: Score (KTR) ($6900) Mid: Faker (SKT) ($8000) ADC: Deft (EDG) ($8800) Support: Piccaboo (KTR) ($6300) Flex: Bang (SKT) ($8100) Team: KT Rolster ($3500)
About as opposite as I can get to my Vulcun lineup. I'm going cheap with KTR as my team and using Piccaboo and Score vs. TSM. Then it's all about paying up for SKT and Deft. SKT should smash BKT and you should look to fit as many of their players into lineups as possible.
Top: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($6300) Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($4300) Mid: Faker (SKT) ($8200) ADC: Deft (EDG) ($7900) Support: SwordArt (FW) ($3500) Flex One: GodV (LGD) ($8100) Flex Two: Ssumday (KTR) ($6900) Team: EDG ($4700)
There isn't much of a price difference between the cheapest favored team and the top dogs so I'm using EDG here. I'm going cheap in the jungle and support again with Karsa and SwordArt and then paying up for favorites. Faker disappointed a bit yesterday but I think he'll be fine today, he's the best player in the world. Make sure if you use Faker that he is going to play or you need to make a pivot to either Easyhoon or another mid laner to avoid getting 0 points. Unlike the other sites DraftKings does not combine starters and subs from teams!
Good luck on day two!
Worlds 2015: Day One Fantasy Advice
I am HYPED for Worlds to start. This lay off of competitive League has really taken me out of my usual Thursday through Sunday routine. But it's back, baby! I'm pretty pumped up, as I'm sure most of you are. Remember if you're playing fantasy, use the vVv Gaming link to get a 100% deposit match on Vulcun!
As usual I tend to want to go with players who are on teams favored to win and players who have high KDA potential as that's where the bulk of your points are going to come from. I tend to not pay up for support players, junglers or teams (where applicable) due to the fact that these roles on average score less points than solo laners and ADCs. That said here are the current odds for day one from http://www.esports-betting.pro/lol/.
As you can see EDG, SKT, and KOO are the heaviest favorites of the day, while FNATIC and Flash Wolves look like the best underdogs. I'm not sure what to think about C9 as they were pretty poor all split but had a great run through the regional qualifier to make Worlds. I'd recommend fading Bangkok Titans, paiN Gaming, and H2k on day one.
Here are my favorite players for Day One listed with their Salaries on Vulcun, AlphaDraft, and DraftKings. The sum in parenthesis represents total budget for each site:
From the above chart you can probable tell I think it is the best idea to spend up on Mid Laners and ADCs. A few other points I'd like to mention is to make sure you know the price of players on each site, as players are not consistently priced across the industry. For example, I mentioned I never pay up for supports, so I will be using SwordArt on all three sites due to his cheap price. But, I'd consider using Aphromoo on Vulcun or DraftKings, but never on AlphaDraft due to his high salary. Let's take a look at my lineups now.
Top: Smeb (KOO) ($1241)
Jungle: Reignover (FNC) ($1233)
Mid: Pawn (EDG) ($1532)
ADC: Pray (KOO) ($1502)
SUP: SwordArt (FW) ($984)
Flex One: Doubelift (CLG) ($1403)
Flex Two: Karsa (FW) ($1071)
Flex Three: Aphromoo (CLG) ($1006)
On Vulcun it is difficult to fit a lot of top players in due to the sites tendency to price out a lot of high profile players. With this lineup I am using high profile players, Pray, Pawn, and Smeb who each have highly favorable matchups and are the cheapest in their roles compared to the other highly favored teams. The bulk of my team comes in from the FW/CLG game, which in my opinion could be a toss up. Aphromoo and SwordArt are both highly consistent performers for their teams, while Doublelift provides a cheaper ADC, but one who is the main carry of his team. Reignover and Karsa round out the team as cheap junglers in decent match ups.
Top: Koro1 (EDG) ($7600)
Jungle: Bengi (SKT) ($7100)
MID: Pawn (EDG) ($8800)
ADC: Bang (SKT) ($8300)
Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($6200)
Flex One: Westdoor (AHQ) ($7700)
Team: EDG ($4000)
In my opinion on AlphaDraft, SKT and EDG players are extremely underpriced. This is good however, as you can fit a lot of them into your lineup. The midlaners are still expensive, but Koro1 and Bengi were so cheap considering how favored they are that I can't pass them up. I mean ZionSpartan is $1200 more than Koro1 and nothing against Zion, but you'd be nuts to take him over Koro. Because of this, you save a lot of money and can actually pay up for a team. I went with EDG. Also, I'm paying up for Pawn and Bang, while using Westdoor (good match up) and SwordArt (cheap).
Top: ZionSpartan (CLG) ($6400)
Jungle: Karsa (FW) ($4900)
Mid: Faker (SKT) ($7,800)
ADC: Bang (SKT) ($7,300)
Sup: SwordArt (FW) ($4,200)
Flex One: Pawn (EDG) ($8,000)
Flex Two: Kuro (KOO) ($8,200)
Team: Flash Wolves ($3,200)
See I'm giving Zion some love here! He's cheap on DraftKings and if he's on a carry champ he has a good chance to outperform his price. I am using some cheap players like Zion, Karsa, SwordArt, and a cheap Team in Flash Wolves, because I believe they all have a shot at good games, but mainly because look at the rest of my lineup. By going cheap I can fit Faker, Pawn, Kuro, and Bang into my lineups. Each has a great shot at being the top day one performers and I'm sure they'll all score highly. If you do use Faker, make sure he starts or you'll need a quick pivot to either Easyhoon or another Midlaner.
Good luck on Day One!