Fantasy LCS: Must Plays, Sleepers, Busts for EU Week Five/Day One
This week I want to make a slight switch by taking a look at each day separately from the entire week. This gives a better idea of how match ups can benefit or hinder a certain player or team. I'm certainly still trying to learn the best way to go about this whole Fantasy LCS stuff, but for my first time doing it I think its going pretty well. I appreciate all the views. Lets take our first look at Week Five starting with EU Day One.
Note: If you see me referring to price below, it's for AlphaDraft's pricing of players for their daily tournaments. If you're not playing AlphaDraft, don't fear, the analysis should work for Fantasy LCS as well.
Must Play: sOAZ (Origen) ($7900) vs. Gambit Gaming - Cabochard is a pretty solid top laner and has been playing a lot better, but sOAZ provides much more to his team than just in the laning phase. sOAZ leads the EU LCS in Assists and is third in kills among all top laners. With Origen a good bet to beat Gambit and sOAZ moderate price, I think he makes for the best top lane pick day one.
Slepper: freddy122 (SK Gaming) ($6800) vs. Elements - In split long I think Jwaow is actually a better play this week. But when I look at this from a daily perspective, Jwaow is the second highest priced top laner this week ahead ahead of sOAZ and only $300 less than Huni. The huge savings with freddy and the potential for SK to win this game makes him the better sleeper. SK went 2-0 last week and looked better as a team including much better performances from freddy and Svenskeren. This is a little risky because freddy has died a TON this split, but I think he could definitely out perform his price on day one.
Bust: Huni (FNATIC) ($9000) vs. H2k - Don't take this the wrong way, if you have Huni in the split long Fantasy LCS format you start him. But he is the highest priced top laner on AlphaDraft and I think there's some risk involved. Odoamne has also been one of the best top laners this split, H2k are a good team who don't give up a lot of fantasy points, and Huni could be targeted in terms of bans and in early gank pressure. Huni will still probably have a good game, but for his price I'm going elsewhere.
Must Play: Amazing (Origen) ($8,600) vs. Gambit - It's going to be a common theme in this post today as I think Origen have the best fantasy potential of any team on day one. But because of that they're also highly priced making it hard to fit them all into your lineup. Amazing leads EU in kills and assists from the jungle role and against a Gambit team that dies a lot, he's a good bet to have a great game. If you save at another position you may be able to fit him in... if not try this next player.
Sleeper: Loulex (H2k) ($5200) vs. FNATIC - This one is all about value. At $5200 Loulex is priced lower than every Support player besides GosuPepper. To me thats crazy! I know H2k play FNATIC and it will be a tough game, but Loulex has been pretty great this split. He's third in assists and while he doesn't get as many kills as other junglers he's also died less than all but one player. I'm using his depressed price to buff my lineup elsewhere. I think he will out score his price by far this week. I also think Kikis is a nice option as well this week, but hes a bit pricier.
Bust: Fr3deric (GIANTS Gaming) ($6400) vs. UoL - Giants have been trending downward after their hot start and I expect it to continue vs. UoL. It's possible this game could turn into a blood bath with huge fantasy totals, but I think Fr3deric is risky as he's died a lot the last two weeks with not as much to show.
Must Play: xPeke (Origen) ($9000) vs. Gambit - Another Origen player tops the list. Peke is the third most expensive mid laner this week but faces Betsy who ranks second in deaths, and second to last in kills and assists from the mid lane.
Sleeper: Nukeduck (ROCCAT) ($6600) vs. CW - If you are spending big elsewhere and need to save at mid, Nukeduck could provide good value this week. I think this match up could prove to be a sloppy one with lots of kills going around, but Nukeduck could take advantage of that. He will be laning against Soren who has the least kills and assists in the EU LCS this split so far making the kill threat not bad. Nukeduck also ranks fourth in assists among mid laners, making his upside pretty solid for his price.
Bust: Froggen (Elements) ($9700) vs. SK - He's a good play in split long with two pretty solid match ups this week, but on AlphaDraft he's the second most expensive player in any role. With that in mind I'm fading him and looking elsewhere. I think Froggen can have a good game and week, but for the price he'd need to put up 60+ fantasy points on day one. While possible, I don't think it's likely.
Must Play: Niels (Origen) ($10000) vs. Gambit - The most expensive player in AlphaDraft this week but worth it in my opinion. He's second in kills, first in assists, and second to last in deaths and faces an aggressive Gambit team who he can punish. If you can fit him into your lineup do it, he's going to be worth it.
Sleeper: Hjarnan (H2k) ($7900) vs. FNATIC - Not really a sleeper as he's been the best ADC in EU lately, but I'm putting him here in case the match up scares you. Rekkles and YellowstaR have been great, but Hjarnan's upside and his value (there are six ADCs priced ahead of him) provide a nice play. He may not have his best week, but I like his depressed price even against FNATIC and think he's worth the play.
Bust: Adryh (GIANTS Gaming) ($8200) vs. UoL - He hasn't been as effective the last two weeks as Giants have crashed back to earth. He's more expensive than Hjarnan and has a tough match up against UoL. I'd rather use the better player for the lower price in Hjarnan than go with Adryh.
Must Play: Mithy (Origen) ($7800) vs. Gambit - The best option and also the most expensive one. I recommend never spending up for supports, but if you have the extra money you could certainly go this route.
Sleeper: Unlimited (CW) ($6000) vs. ROCCAT - Lowest PPG total, most deaths, second least assists. Am I crazy? It's possible honestly... I was debating between Unlimited and Vander, but here's the thing. ROCCAT have just added MrRallez and the synergy was not there last week. Freeze has punished weaker teams this split and could have a really good game boosting Unlimited's value. If you go this route just hope Unlimited doesn't die a ton and it could pay off. Vander is the exact same price so if you'd rather go with him I can't fault you.
Bust: Promisq (Elements) ($7600) vs. SK - He's the second most expensive support and I just don't think he'll be worth it. Never pay up for a support player if you can help it.
Must Play: Origen ($4000) vs. Gambit - I have all their players ranked as the top in their position so this was probably a given. Their second in the EU for dragon kills, baron kills, and third in tower kills, which is where you get your points. Gambit also rank near the bottom for all of those categories, making this an appealing match up.
Sleeper: H2k ($3200) vs. FNATIC - It's too risky for me personally, but if you think H2k can beat FNATIC you can save $800 to use elsewhere. I'm personally not going to be this ballsy.
Bust: CW ($3800) vs. ROCCAT - They're the third highest priced team in a game that can go either way. They're also last in turret kills, baron kills, and second to last in dragon kills. No thanks.
Here's my lineup for Week Five Day One in the EU:
Jungle: Loulex (H2k) ($5200)
Support: Unlimited (CW) ($6000)
Flex: Hjarnan (H2k) ($7900)